Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes

Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China (1955-2011) and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data (1979-2007) and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days (28 days) and a parts per thousand yen10 consecutive dry days (36%) are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.This work was supported in part by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program; the Clean Air Research Project in China; the Sustainable Development Research Project of Academia Sinica, Consortium for Climate Change Study, funded by the National Science CouncilSCI(E)中国科技核心期刊(ISTIC)中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)ARTICLEshawliu@gate.sinica.edu.tw; yhzhang@pku.edu.cn81027-10373