Analysis of dynamics of the regional cropland-population-grain system and prediction of the pressure on cropland: Case study on Xingtai Prefecture of Hebei Province

Based on the analysis of the changes of the cropland, population and grain production during 1990 to 2004 in Xingtai Prefecture, the paper studies the changing characteristics of the pressure index on cropland and predicts the cropland, population, grain output and the pressure index on cropland in the coming 15 years. The results show that since 1990s the total output and the quantity per capita of grain have been increasing due to the increase of production per unit of cropland, although the cropland has been decreasing while the population increasing. Hence, the pressure index on cropland has tended to decrease. In the coming 15 years, the pressure index on cropland will be further decreased. Obviously, it is only through the increase of investment and the progress of science-technology to raise cropland productivity that the pressure on cropland will be reduced and the grain production guaranteed.EI02230-2344