Numerical study of the genesis and development of typhoon WUKONG (2000) over South China Sea

The Fifth generation NCAR/PSU mesoscale nonhydrostatic model (MM5) was used to simulate the process that a tropical disturbance developed into a strong typhoon WUKONG over the South China Sea in September 2000. The MM5 model could forecast the maximum wind and intensity of the typhoon with considerable accuracy. The natural developing characteristics of South China Sea Typhoon which involved step-by-step deepening and drastic strengthening were also well simulated. Based on some diagnostic variable analysis, the potential factors on typhoon structure as well as the genesis of typhoon eye were briefly analyzed. Sensitivity experiments on sea surface temperature (SST) effect indicate that the SST is of vital importance to the genesis and development of typhoon over South China Sea. If SST is degraded by 1 degree, the simulated typhoon would have a decrease of 10 m/s on maximum wind and a nearly seven-hour delay to reach typhoon level intensity (surpass 32.8 m/s). If SST is degraded by 2 degree (with SST still being between 26 and 27 degree), the initial tropical disturbance could hardly develop into typhoon.EI05773-7804