Disequilibrium analysis on Beijing housing market

The paper focuses on the disequilibrium degree of Beijing housing market. First, based on disequilibrium market principles and the characteristics of Beijing housing market, a disequilibrium model of housing demand and supply is built by modifying the third equation of disequilibrium econometric model. Second, analysis on statistical data shows that disposable income, interest rate of development loan, and deficiency of housing market are the most important factors leading to the disequilibrium. Third, estimated parameters are applied to measure the disequilibrium degree of housing market of Beijing. According to the computed results, there were four phases: (1) 1992 -1993, the status of disequilibrium, with supply exceeding demand; (2) 1994 -1995, the market status turns into demand exceeding supply; (3) 1996 - 2001, the market status is resembled the first phase, but the key factors were different; (4) 2002- 2005, the market status turns into disequilibrium with demand exceeding supply, but the inducements were different.Construction & Building TechnologyManagementOperations Research & Management SciencePlanning & DevelopmentCPCI-S(ISTP)CPCI-SSH(ISSHP)