Lake eutrophication evaluation and diagnosis based on Bayesian method and SD model

In order to comprehensively evaluate the eutrophication degree of Lake Dianchi, Bayesian Method was applied in this paper. The evaluation result showed that the eutrophication status of Lake Caohai was more serious than that of Lake Waihai, while the eutrophication degree was turning better these years. Besides, in this paper SD model was established to diagnose the socio-economic factors that caused Lake Dianchi Eutrophication. The relationship between socio-economic development and eutrophication was analyzed, which will provide the theoretical basis for planning the urban population distribution and industrial sectors distribution. Ultimately, the N/P ratios of Lake Dianchi which can influence the growth of cyanobacteria were analyzed. The result showed that Lake Caohai and Lake Waihai were at the opposite side of the inflection point of 15, and the eutrophication in Lake Caohai and Lake Waihai should be treated differently. ? 2010 Springer-Verlag.EI