A general forecast on oil harvesting and its policies

Oil, a finite resource, fuels our world. The production of oil is closely related to the development of world. To quantify the world production of crude oil and establish relevant policies, we construct the following models. In model(I) we present a rough method to describe the trend of oil production. Using the history data;, we can make a regression to indicate the future production and estimate the exhaustion time. In model(II) we select the oil price, percentage of remained oil and productivity as the main factors that affect the oil production. We conclude that the production curve is bell shaped. We prospected that P(t) = CP(0)e(-a(t-t0)2). With estimated;parameters, our model fits the history data perfectly. The exhaustion time is modified. In model(III) we try to control the oil price to stabilize the oil production within a certain range. With an input of the aimed range, our model can give out the corresponding pricing policy of a certain confidence level. Numerical results show the superiority of our model. It offers the government and organizations an attractive and inspiring way to control the oil production. In model (IV) we put forward an alternative resource policy which optimizes the total cost in investigating new alternative resources. This may help to pass through imminent oil crisis.Computer Science, Interdisciplinary ApplicationsEngineering, IndustrialOperations Research & Management ScienceCPCI-S(ISTP)