A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIYUN RESERVOIR AREA, CHINA

Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio-economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system's behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system's environmental and socio-economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.Environmental SciencesSCI(E)中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)3ARTICLE2157-1651