Creating the future : the use and misuse of scenarios

Tiré à part pages 164 à 171Facing dramatic changes, organizations do not only have to be reactive and pre-active, but also pro-active, thus linking anticipation and action. To transform anticipation into action through appropriation, scenarios should follow four conditions: relevance, consistence, likelihood and transparency. For that purpose, the use of simple formal tools like structural analysis, actors' strategy analysis, morphological methods or probability analysis, illustrated with a case study on the steel and iron industry, is useful to avoid entertainment and to explore all possible scenario