Technological forecasting for decision making

484 p., fig., 1 disquette soupleThe methodology used in technological forecasting is made crystal clear in this essential reference for engineers, managers, government strategic planners, and students. Providing a careful balance of theory and practical applications, the book shows technological forecasting at work in business, industry, and government―with well-chosen examples that illustrate both the strengths and limitations of each technique. Demonstrating the key point that technological change can be anticipated, forecast, and managed effectively, the book contains such special features as: The rationale behind each important method in current use-and why it works! Vital applications in business, government, and R&D planning Highly useful data tables that provide historical examples and case studies Complete listings of applicable computer programs, with 3.5" and 5.25" computer disks included New sections on probabilistic methods, never before available in book form Numerous historical examples and hands-on exercises And much more! For practicing engineers, the book offers the nuts and bolts of preparing technological forecasts, including their mathematical derivations; for managers, it offers a full understanding of how the forecasts can best be applied and what problems may arise. For all readers, it is an indispensable decision-making tool that will greatly enhance their on-the-job effectiveness