Development of a combined in Vitro Physiologically Based Kinetic (PBK) and Monte Carlo modelling approach to predict interindividual human variation in phenol-induced developmental toxicity

With our recently developed in vitro physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling approach, we could extrapolate in vitro toxicity data to human toxicity values applying PBK-based reverse dosimetry. Ideally information on kinetic differences among human individuals within a population should be considered. In the present study, we demonstrated a modelling approach that integrated in vitro toxicity data, PBK modelling and Monte Carlo simulations to obtain insight in interindividual human kinetic variation and derive chemical specific adjustment factors (CSAFs) for phenol-induced developmental toxicity. The present study revealed that UGT1A6 is the primary enzyme responsible for the glucuronidation of phenol in humans followed by UGT1A9. Monte Carlo simulations were performed taking into account interindividual variation in glucuronidation by these specific UGTs and in the oral absorption coefficient. Linking Monte Carlo simulations with PBK modelling, population variability in the maximum plasma concentration of phenol for the human population could be predicted. This approach provided a CSAF for interindividual variation of 2.0 which covers the 99th percentile of the population, which is lower than the default safety factor of 3.16 for interindividual human kinetic differences. Dividing the dose-response curve data obtained with in vitro PBK-based reverse dosimetry, with the CSAF provided a dose-response curve that reflects the consequences of the interindividual variability in phenol kinetics for the developmental toxicity of phenol. The strength of the presented approach is that it provides insight in the effect of interindividual variation in kinetics for phenol-induced developmental toxicity, based on only in vitro and in silico testing. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology