Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to Quantify the Relationship Between Changes in Land Cover And Surface Urban Heat Island

The World’s global urban population is expected to increase by an additional three (3) billion people by the year 2050. As urban areas expand to accommodate the growing demand for impervious infrastructure resulting land cover changes drive changes in ambient environmental conditions. This expansion in urban area creates an urban heat island effect (UHI), a general term used to describe the relative difference in surface temperatures between urban and non-urban areas. The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between changes in land cover and change in surface temperature. Information derived from this project is needed to inform land managers and policy makers of the impact of land cover change on local environmental conditions and, potentially, how these issues may be mitigated. We utilized a geographic information systems (GIS) based approach to assess and ultimately quantify the spatial relationship between MODIS derived surface heat data and National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) land classification data for central Kentucky. It is hypothesized that increases in total area of impervious developments per given unit of observation are correlated with increases in mean land surface temperatures. Preliminary results suggested that the mean land surface temperature of a given observation increased as the total portion of land cover impervious increased. Mean land surface temperatures were found to be positively and significantly correlated to increases in impervious land cover. It was concluded that increased impervious land cover was a dominant driver of increased surface temperatures in this study area