The Implications of Russia’s Legislative Vote for the EU. College of Europe Policy Brief #17.16, November 2016

Executive Summary > Despite United Russia's impressive result, winning 76.22 per cent of the seats in the Duma, the 2016 Russian legislative elections have been characterised by the lowest turnout since 1993. The new composition of the Duma does not reflect the economic and social challenges currently faced by the Putin regime. > Both the low turnout and the unrepresentativeness of the Duma suggest that opposing voices are not effectively integrated in the democratic process in the Russian Federation. As a result, significant protest potential looms in Russian society. > The Putin regime resorts especially to an assertive foreign policy to cover up domestic problems, making the country a continuously unstable interlocutor for the European Union. > To deal with this instability, the EU should adopt a strategy operating with two time horizons: in the short term, it should confront Russian foreign policy assertiveness with resoluteness and cohesiveness. In the long term, it should prepare itself for potentially major changes in Russian society, notably by building stronger expertise on Russia and its political system inside the EU and by more strongly engaging with Russian civil society