Uncertainty and monetary policy

Using the minutes of decision-,making committee meetings we analyse how the Bank of England, the Czech National Bank and the Sveriges Riksbank communicate uncertainty in their discussion of the setting of a forward-looking monetary policy. The aim is to test whether information about uncertainty in the minutes helps explain interest rate settings. We find that to show the effect of uncertainty it needs to be clear what the uncertainty is about, output or inflation for example. We also show that there is a relationship between the level of uncertainty expressed and the degree of disagreement in the committees