Triglyceride glucose-waist circumference, a novel and effective predictor of diabetes in first-degree relatives of type 2 diabetes patients: cross-sectional and prospective cohort study

Background: Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), visceral adiposity index (VAI), triglyceride glucose index (TyG), TyG-BMI, and TyG-WC have been reported as markers of insulin resistance or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, little is known about the associations between the aforementioned markers and the risk of prediabetes and diabetes in first-degree relatives (FDRs) of T2DM patients. Methods: 1544 FDRs of T2DM patients (635 men and 909 women) were enrolled in the initial cross-sectional study and all of them finished corresponding examinations. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to compare and identify the associations of the six parameters (BMI, WC, VAI, TyG, TyG-BMI and TyG-WC) with the prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes. Subsequently, 452 of them were followed-up for an average of 5 years. Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to confirm the predictive value of the optimal marker. Results: Among the indices, TyG-WC was more strongly associated with the prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes. Compared with participants in the lowest quartile of TyG-WC, the adjusted odds ratio and 95 % CIs for prediabetes and diabetes was 11.19 (7.62–16.42) for those in the top quartile of TyG-WC. Moreover, the largest AUC was also observed in TyG-WC (0.765, 95 % CIs 0.741–0.789, P < 0.001). The robust predictive value of TyG-WC was further confirmed in the follow-up study (HR: 7.13, 95 % CIs 3.41–14.90, P < 0.001). Conclusions: TyG-WC is a novel and clinically effective marker for early identifying the risks of prediabetes and diabetes in FDRs of T2DM patients. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12967-016-1020-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users