Respiratory infections and the risk of celiac disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The increasing incidence of celiac disease (CD) suggests that common infections before the onset of autoimmune diseases could be an important factor in switching the immune response. We aimed to explore the relationship between early clinical events and the development of CD in genetically predisposed infants. METHODS: In this study, 373 newborns from families with at least 1 relative with CD were recruited, and human leukocyte antigen DQ2- or DQ8-positive infants were followed up with clinical and serological evaluations. Cross tabulation and odds ratios were used to explore the risk associated with single variables, and logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the variables that contributed to the risk of developing CD. Stepwise discriminant analysis was used to determine which variables could distinguish case patients from controls before diagnosis. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of CD in this cohort was 6% at 3 years and 13.5% at 5 years of age, and l34 children (14%) developed CD before the sixth year of life. An analysis of adverse events showed a higher frequency of respiratory tract infections among CD patients during the first 24 months of life. In a stepwise discriminant analysis, which included sex and human leukocyte antigen risk class, only respiratory infections in the second and first years of life significantly contributed to discrimination of case patients versus controls. CONCLUSIONS: A multivariate model of discriminant analysis showed that the frequency of respiratory infections in the first 2 years of life could distinguish children who developed CD from those who did not