Long run scenarios for surface transport

Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from asustainable development (e .g ., due to rising CO2-emissions) and that majorchanges in technology, public policy as well as in the behaviour of individuals arenecessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmentalsustainability. This provokes the need for assessing a set of future images fortransport in relation to the environment. In this paper reference and expertscenarios, which can act as a judgement framework for a sustainable transportsystem, are constructed on the basis of the recently developed `spider model'.Based on a set of distinct characteristics of a transport system, represented byeight axes in the spatial, institutional, economie and social-psychological field, anevaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces thatlargely influence the future of the transport system. There are several directionsin which these factors may develop, and each of them will separately or incombination lead to entirely different transport systems. In this way, manyscenarios can be constructed by connecting points on the successive axes. Suc