Sensitivity analysis of the dynamic CO2 storage capacity estimate for the Bunter Sandstone of the UK Southern North Sea

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in subsurface reservoirs has been identified as a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Global emissions reductions on the gigatonne scale using CCS will require regional or basin-scale deployment of CO2 storage in saline aquifers. Thus the evaluation of both the dynamic and ultimate CO2 storage capacity of formations is important for policy makers to determine the viability of CCS as a pillar of the greenhouse gas mitigation strategy in a particular region. We use a reservoir simulation model representing the large-scale Bunter Sandstone in the UK Southern North Sea to evaluate the dynamics and sensitivities of regional CO2 plume transport and storage. At the basin-scale, we predict hydrogeological changes in the storage reservoir in response to multiple regional carbon sequestration development scenarios. We test the sensitivity of injection capacity to a range of target CO2 injection rates and fluctuations in CO2 supply. Model sensitivities varying the target injection rates indicate that in the absence of pressure management up to 3.7 Gt of CO2 can be stored in the Bunter region over 50 years given the pressure constraints set to avoid fracturing the formation. Long-term (approx. 1000 years), our results show that up to 16 Gt of CO2 can be stored in the Bunter region without pressure management. With pressure management, the estimate rises to 32 Gt. However, consideration must be given to the additional operational and economic requirements of pressure management using brine production