Anticipating climate change effect on biomass productivity and vegetation structure of mediterranean forests to promote the sustainability of the wood energy supply chain

International audienceThis study aims to assess the potentiality of biomass production and availability for energy systems based on woody biomass, with the use of a geoprospective approach. The methodology takes into account the impact of the global warming on the Net Primary Productivity and the vegetation structure towards 2050, and the assessment of urban dynamic in order to identify the future areas of energy demand. Our results show that Mediterranean forest may be more vulnerable due to the increase of temperatures that may affect the mortality of the trees and shrubs, and the structure of the ecosystems due to the colonization of more xerophilous species in the inner valleys and hills. In some parts of the Alpes-Maritimes (French Riviera), these changes may affect the biomass production and, in consequence, the availability of the resource for the supply chain. The current development of the urbanization in the valleys and in the central part of the territory, which will be emphasized in the future, raises the question of the sustainability of energy systems based on woody biomass in such areas due to the potential risk of the increase of trees mortality, changes in vegetation structure with less trees and NPP decrease. At the opposite, in the mountain areas, the NPP will increase and the dynamic of trees would be suitable to the development of forests. But these areas are mainly located in protected areas where few activities are tolerated. These results underline the difficulty and complexity of a sustainable development of wood energy supply chain in Mediterranean territories, and the need of a strategy to face these potential problems