Beginning to Balance: Maritime Southeast Asia Responds to the Rise of China

China has over the last several years begun implementing a new strategy intended to enforce its expansive claims to nearly the entirety of the South China Sea, which is executed through the use of coast guard forces that are in turn supported by its growing naval power. As a result of the implementation of this strategy, Chinese forces are increasingly coming into contact with those of their Southeast Asian counterparts, creating friction and leading to a growing number of incidents in disputed areas. The scope of Chinas enforcement activities has expanded over time, and while it may have initially been focused closer to China, effecting primarily Vietnam and the Philippines, Chinese coast guard vessels now routinely operate in areas much further south near Malaysia and Indonesia. These developments have created a growing amount of concern in the capitals of these countries, where Chinas long term and even near term intentions are increasingly in question. Heightened threat perception has in turn resulted in a shift toward more pronounced balancing behavior in the wider hedging strategies adopted by Maritime Southeast Asia to respond to a rising China. This balancing behavior has varied from country to country in terms of timing, type, and ultimately effectiveness. While some states such as the Philippines have chosen to balance primarily through external means, strengthening their alliance with the United States, most have relied more on internal methods including modernization of naval and coast guard forces. At the operational level, balancing efforts have evolved over time to account for the coercive tactics that continue to be employed by Chinese forces. Southeast Asian counter-coercion strategies are likely to complicate if not ultimately frustrate the implementation of Chinas strategy. While it remains to be seen if some of these smaller regional countries can effectively counter Chinese power, other rising powers such as Indonesia will almost certainly play a pivotal role in determining the regional balance going forward. Though in many cases it may have been a long time coming, a long term trend is now clear across Maritime Southeast Asia: they are beginning to balance