Economic impacts of China's pension reform: provincial and national contexts

This thesis provides a range of analyses to examine the current Chinese pension reform in both provincial and national contexts, with special emphasis on coverage increase and its long term financial implications. Quantitative assessment includes econometric analysis of survey data initiated and organized by the author and her colleagues. Special models are designed to reflect the transitional characteristics of the current Chinese pension system. The results confirm that the coverage increase delays the system-aging process, through labor migration and urbanization, by about 20 years. But a funding crisis is inevitable if no parametric reforms could be made in the current system and if the system is not well managed. Policy suggestions are made in line with the empirical analysis and model results.In addition, some structural pension reform options are discussed. Two Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) applications are presented and simulations indicate that an NDC system may be effective in smoothing the financial pressure for government while maintaining adequate levels of individual retirement benefit. In the final part of the thesis, a hypothetical safety net is assessed in the context of the current policy framework, and its cost is examined. The thesis introduces new data and first hand information about Chinese pension reform in a provincial context to reflect the features of the national system