Evolving complexity towards risk : a massive scenario generation approach for evaluating advanced air traffic management concepts

Present day air traffic control is reaching its operational limits and accommodating future traffic growth will be a challenging task for air traffic service providers and airline operators. Free Flight is a proposed transition from a highly-structured and centrally-controlled air traffic system to a self-optimised and highly-distributed system. In Free Flight, pilots will have the flexibility of real-time trajectory planning and dynamic route optimisation given airspace constraints (traffic, weather etc.). A variety of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts are proposed as enabling technologies for the realisation of Free Flight. Since these concepts can be exposed to unforeseen and challenging scenarios in Free Flight, they need to be validated and evaluated in order to implement the most effective systems in the field. Evaluation of advanced ATM concepts is a challenging task due to the limitations in the existing scenario generation methodologies and limited availability of a common platform (air traffic simulator) where diverse ATM concepts can be modelled and evaluated. Their rigorous evaluation on safety metrics, in a variety of complex scenarios, can provide an insight into their performance, which can help improve upon them while developing new ones. In this thesis, I propose a non-propriety, non-commercial air traffic simulation system, with a novel representation of airspace, which can prototype advanced ATM concepts such as conflict detection and resolution, airborne weather avoidance and cockpit display of traffic information. I then propose a novel evolutionary computation methodology to algorithmically generate a massive number of conflict scenarios of increasing complexity in order to evaluate conflict detection algorithms. I illustrate the methodology in detail by quantitative evaluation of three conflict detection algorithms, from the literature, on safety metrics. I then propose the use of data mining techniques for the discovery of interesting relationships, that may exist implicitly, in the algorithm's performance data. The data mining techniques formulate the conflict characteristics, which may lead to algorithm failure, using if-then rules. Using the rule sets for each algorithm, I propose an ensemble of conflict detection algorithms which uses a switch mechanism to direct the subsequent conflict probes to an algorithm which is less vulnerable to failure in a given conflict scenario. The objective is to form a predictive model for algorithm's vulnerability which can then be included in an ensemble that can minimise the overall vulnerability of the system. In summary, the contributions of this thesis are: 1. A non-propriety, non-commercial air traffic simulation system with a novel representation of airspace for efficient modelling of advanced ATM concepts. 2. An Ant-based dynamic weather avoidance algorithm for traffic-constrained enroute airspace. 3. A novel representation of 4D air traffic scenario that allows the use of an evolutionary computation methodology to evolve complex conflict scenarios for the evaluation of conflict detection algorithms. 4. An evaluation framework where scenario generation, scenario evaluation and scenario evolution processes can be carried out in an integrated manner for rigorous evaluation of advanced ATM concepts. 5. A methodology for forming an intelligent ensemble of conflict detection algorithms by data mining the scenario space