Modelling Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in Australia

This thesis is concerned with the mathematical modelling for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics in Australia.There are two parts to this thesis. Part I is aimed at modelling thetransmission of HIV and HCV via needle sharing among injecting drug users (IDUs).The dynamical model of an epidemic through needle sharingamong IDUs is derived. This model reveals the correlation between needle sharing and the epidemic prevalence among IDUs.The simulations of HIV and HCV prevalence and incidence among IDUs in Australiaare made with this model. The comparison of simulated results with literature estimates shows that the modelled results are consistent withthe literature estimates. The effects of needle sharing and cleaningon HIV and HCV prevalence andincidence among IDUs in Australia are evaluated.Part II is devoted to modelling the spread of HIV inthe general community in Australia. A mathematical model is formulated toassess the epidemiological consequences of injecting drug use and sexualtransmission in Australia. The effects of highly active antiretroviraltherapies (HAART) on the HIV epidemic are included. The modelled results are in broad agreement with the literature estimates andobserved data. The long-term effects of HAART are also discussed