Incidence and Predictors of Death, Retention, and Switch to Second-Line Regimens in Antiretroviral-Treated Patients in Sub-Saharan African Sites with Comprehensive Monitoring Availability

Background. Antiretroviral treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of early mortality and loss to follow-up. Switching to second-line regimens is often delayed because of limited access to laboratory monitoring. Methods. Retrospective analysis was performed of a cohort of adults who initiated a standard first-line antiretroviral treatment at 5 public sector sites in 3 African countries. Monitoring included routine CD4 cell counts, human immunodeficiency virus RNA measures, and records of whether appointments were kept. Incidence and predictors of death, loss to follow-up, and switch to second-line regimens were analyzed by time-to-event approaches. Results. A total of 3749 patients were analyzed; at baseline, 37.1% were classified as having World Health Organization disease stage 3 or 4, and the median CD4 cell count was 192 cells/μL. First-line regimens were nevirapine based in 96.5% of patients; 17.7% of patients attended