Aflatoxin exposure through food consumption – are we ready to face the risk associated to climate change?

Climate change (CC) has been indicated as a driver for food safety issues worldwide, mainly due to the impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of food chain. Mycotoxins, natural contaminants produced by fungi, are mentioned to be one of the most important food safety hazards affected by CC. Aflatoxins, which have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins, assumes particular importance within this context. A recent study predicted aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops in Europe within the next 100 years. The authors concluded that aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is predicted to become a food safety issue in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of CC expected for the next years. In Europe, previous reported studies estimated mean dietary exposures to aflatoxins for the general population from all food sources ranging from 0.93 ng kg bw-1 day-1 to 2.4 ng kg bw-1 day-1. In Portugal, an estimation of a probable daily exposure to aflatoxins of 0.501 ng kg bw-1 day-1 by the Portuguese population was reported. In addition, other authors also estimated aflatoxin exposure of Portuguese children (1-3 years) and reported a potential health concern associated to the exposure, wherein AFB1 was the main contributor. Considering the potential risks associated to Portuguese exposure to aflatoxins through diet, and the potential influence of CC on the temperature, humidity, precipitation and consequently on the mycotoxin contamination of food products, this presentation will discuss the CC impact on public health. To face this objective, burden of disease (BoD) associated to aflatoxin exposure of the Portuguese population will be estimated, for the first time, using a model of three components: an exposure, health-outcome and disability adjusted life years (DALY) modules. BoD of different scenarios will be discussed in light of the current knowledge about recent estimates of CC impact in Europe.N/