How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs - Fig 2

<p>(a) The exchange rate time series and (b) the indicator time series. The pair of blue dashed vertical lines represents the time window over the exchange rate time series in (a) was used to compute one indicator value (the open blue circle in (b)). We slide this window along to obtain the pair of red dashed vertical lines, within which we obtain a second indicator value (the open red open circle in (b)). Repeating this we obtained the indicator time series in (b), which is then Gaussian smoothed (blue dashed curve). For the <i>T</i>₂ rolling window indicated by the pair of blue solid vertical lines, its endpoint is the last value on the Gaussian-smoothed indicator time series (the solid blue dot in (b)). The endpoint value of the next <i>T</i>₂ rolling window (the pair of red solid vertical lines) is shown in (b) as the solid red dot on the Gaussian-smoothed curve.