Analysis and modeling of safety parameters in the selection of optimal routes for emergency evacuation after the earthquake (Case study: 13 Aban neighborhood of Tehran)

Introduction : Earthquakes are imminent threats to urban areas of Iran, especially Tehran. They can cause extensive destructions and lead to heavy casualties. One of the most important aspects of disaster management after earthquake is the rapid transfer of casualties to emergency shelters. To expedite emergency evacuation process the optimal safe path method should be considered. To examine the safety of road networks and to determine the most optimal route at pre-earthquake phase, a series of parameters should be taken into account. Methods : In this study, we employed a multi-criteria decision-making approach to determine and evaluate the effective safety parameters for selection of optimal routes in emergency evacuation after an earthquake. Results: The relationship between the parameters was analyzed and the effect of each parameter was listed. A process model was described and a case study was implemented in the 13th Aban neighborhood ( Tehran’s 20th municipal district) . Then, an optimal path to safe places in an emergency evacuation after an earthquake in the 13th Aban neighborhood was selected. Conclusion : Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), as the main model, was employed. Each parameter of the model was described. Also, the capabilities of GIS software such as layer coverage were used. Keywords: Earthquake, emergency evacuation, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), crisis management, optimization, 13th Aban neighborhood of Tehra