Ethnicity as a risk factor for diabetes incidence in a population of diagnosed hypertensives

Significant racial/ethnic differences exist in prevalence of hypertension (HTN) and non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Hypertension is more common in diabetics than in non-diabetics, and an etiologic link between the two conditions has been proposed. Since there are few longitudinal studies of persons with both HTN and NIDDM, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine if ethnicity (Black, Hispanic (Mexican-American), and non-Hispanic White) was related to NIDDM incidence in a low-SES, multi-ethnic clinic population of diagnosed hypertensives. Two thousand nine hundred forty-one hypertensives free of NIDDM at baseline were followed for up to 10 years. Mean baseline age was 56 $\pm$ 12 years, M:F percent was 33:67, and Black:Hispanic:White percent was 63:17:20. There were 236 incident cases of NIDDM. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, the risk of developing NIDDM over 10 years was not related to ethnicity after controlling for significant covariates, including age, baseline blood glucose and body mass index (adjusted RR for Blacks compared to Whites =.82, 95 percent CI =.57-1.18; adjusted RR for Hispanics compared to Whites =.84, 95 percent CI =.51-1.38). This result contrasts with the increased risk of NIDDM among Blacks and Hispanics compared to Whites found in the general population. The study suggests that a diagnosis of hypertension equalizes the risk of developing NIDDM among the three ethnic groups.