A Model of Land use Conversion and Its Application

A quantitative model for analyzing the spatial distribution of land use utility is proposed. This model is based on the random bidding theory in which location behaviour is decided according to the size of utility to be obtained. The utility function used here consists of the benefit and the cost in the process of land use transition. The benefit is described as the positive utility that can be obtained by doing the corresponding land use at the place. The cost is described as the negative utility that is necessary for changing the land use from one state to the others. The most likelihood method is generally employed to estimate the parameters of this kind of models. However, we attempt to propose the other statistical method through the mathematical consideration. Using this model, it is possible to obtain the spatial distribution of land use utility that differs with the places and with the land use states. We can also evaluate the effects of a change of land-price or construction costs on our utility. Namely, our location behaviour can be estimated numerically relating with the social or economic factors. As numerical examples, we apply the proposed model to the actual land use data and access the effectiveness of the model