Predicting mortality among a general practice-based sample of older people with heart failure

noObjective: To identify factors available to general practitioners (GPs) that are predictive of mortality within a general practice-based population of heart failure patients, and to report the sensitivity and specificity of prognostic information from GPs. Methods: Five hundred and forty-two heart failure patients aged >60 years were recruited from 16 UK GP surgeries. Patients completed quality-of-life and services use questionnaires every 3 months for 24 months or until death. Factors with independent significant association with survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results: Women had a 58% lower risk of death. Patients self-reporting New York Heart Association Classification III or IV had an 81% higher risk of death. Patients aged 85+ years had over a five-fold risk of death as compared with those aged