Optimization under parameter uncertainties with application to product cost minimization

This report will look at optimization under parameters of uncertainties. It will describe the subject in its wider form, then two model examples will be studied, followed by an application to an ABB product. The Monte Carlo method will be described and scrutinised, with the quasi-Monte Carlo method being favoured for large problems. An example will illustrate how the choice of Monte Carlo method will affect the efficiency of the simulation when evaluating functions of different dimensions. Then an overview of mathematical optimization is given, from its simplest form to nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems containing uncertainties.A Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the design process and cost function for a custom made ABB transformer, where the production process is assumed to contain some uncertainties.The result from optimizing an ABB cost formula, where the in-parameters contains some uncertainties, shows how the price can vary and is not fixed as often assumed, and how this could influence an accept/reject decision