Att använda boreala skogar för att begränsa klimatförändringar - till vilken kostnad? : En analys av Parisavtalets konsekvenser för renbetets hållbarhet med hjälp av Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

The potential of utilizing boreal forests for carbon storage has gained momentum, a recognition reflected in both the Paris Agreement and science. Research on the consequences of climate policy on sustainable forest management delineate, rather inadequately, the complexities of policy-human-environment interactions. These studies are limited in terms of integrating various land user with different values sharing the same forest resource, such as indigenous peoples. This paper uses a semi-quantitative Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) approach to capture interdisciplinary knowledge by comparing different scenarios regarding forest management strategies and power regimes, driven by the Paris Agreement or Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Given these scenarios, this paper aims to analyze the possible effects on quality of winter grazing grounds for reindeer relative to forest biomass yield. The findings of this study confirm that a scenario with more intensively managed forest is most likely to harm terrestrial and arboreal lichen availability, which is the basis for sustainable winter grazing for reindeer. The study also suggests that more indigenous influence would enhance the sustainability of reindeer herding. Based on these results and given this era of industrially intensified forest management, now partly justified by climate change mitigation, it can be argued that the livelihood of Sami herders is vulnerable due to multiple direct and indirect climate stressors. The results are discussed to explore possible policy implementations, as well as environmental decision making. Keywords: climate policy, climate mitigation, boreal forests, indigenous herding, power regime