Analysis of landscape change following the construction of the Alqueva dam, southern Portugal: approach and methods.

European landscapes are under enormous pressures related to the major challenges facing our society. In our research we intend to analyze recent landscape change in the Alqueva dam watershed and predict future scenarios in terms of land use/cover and landscape configuration. The multi-agent systems modeling of land use/cover change (MAS/LUCC) are tools that combine methods like multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) and cellular automata (CA), being able to go beyond the mere analysis of land use change, permitting a more and more proximal approach to landscape itself. This article presents a review of the conceptual theory and application of MAS/LUCC as a way to define a methodology of analysis of recent changes in the Alqueva Dam Watershed and prediction of future scenarios for 2025, 2050 and 2100. This landscape unit has a high potential to change not only related with the dam construction, but also by the consequential territorial options in the Regional Plan for the Surroundings of Alqueva’s lake (PROZEA)