Do Kenya's climate change mitigation ambitions necessitate large-scale renewable energy deployment and dedicated low-carbon energy policy?

In this paper Kenya's climate change mitigation ambitions are analysed from an energy system perspective, with a focus on the role of renewable and other low-carbon energy technologies. At COP-21 in 2015 in Paris, Kenya has committed to a `nationally determined contribution' of reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in 2030 in comparison to a business-as-usual projection. An efficient exploitation of the country's renewable energy resources is key to achieving this target. We use the TIAM-ECN model to characterize plausible development pathways for the Kenyan energy mix until 2050 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. We conclude that the power sector can expand with mostly renewable energy options even in the absence of stringent greenhouse gas abatement targets. On the contrary, on the demand side a substantial deployment of low-carbon technologies is triggered only when ambitious emission reduction objectives are in place. The introduction of these technologies entails additional energy system costs, ranging in 2050 from 0.5% to 2% of the country's GDP. Our analysis supports the feasibility of Kenyan climate management goals, provided that adequate investments in renewable and other low-carbon energy technologies are timely made available