Identifying pathways toward sustainable electricity supply and demand using an integrated resource strategic planning model for Saudi Arabia

Kurdgelashvili, LadoDespite holding 16% of proved oil reserves in the world (equivalent to more than 266 billion barrels), Saudi Arabia might be on an unsustainable path to become a net oil importer by the 2030s. Decades of domestic energy subsidies accompanied by a high population growth rate have encouraged inefficient production and high domestic consumption of fossil fuel energy, which has resulted in environmental degradation, and significant social and economic consequences. In addition, the government’s dependence on oil as a main source of revenue (89%) to finance its development programs cannot be sustained due to oil’s exhaustible nature and rapidly increasing domestic consumption. ☐ In Saudi Arabia, the electricity and water sectors consume more energy than other sectors. The literature review conducted as part of this dissertation revealed that electricity use in Saudi Arabia is following an unsustainable path (7–8% annual growth over the last decade). Due to the country’s extremely hot weather during the summer, air conditioning represents 70% of the residential sector’s total annual energy consumption. The water sector is another major energy consumer due to an unprecedented demand for water in the Kingdom (per capita consumption is twice the world average). Saudi Arabia’s water stems mostly from desalination plants, which are currently responsible for producing approximately 18% of world’s total desalinated water output. ☐ Since the Kingdom started restructuring its power sector in the 2000s, multiple entities have been involved in fragmented planning activities on the supply-side as well as to a certain extent on the demand-side; moreover, comprehensive integrated resource strategic plans have been lacking at the national level. This dissertation established an integrated resource strategic planning (IRSP) model for Saudi Arabia’s electricity and water sectors (i.e., the EWS model). This model is a useful optimization tool for integrating demand-side and supply-side resources and for aligning fragmented energy policies among various entities with overall economic, social, and environmental objectives. With all of its components and details, the IRSP can clearly determine the Kingdom’s future vision of its utility sector, including goals, policies, programs, and an execution timetable, taking into consideration economic, environmental and social benefits. To provide input to the EWS model, a weatherbased hybrid end-use econometric demand forecasting model was developed to comprehensively project electricity demand in all sectors and regions until 2040. This proposed forecasting model evaluates weather and climate change impacts on Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand. ☐ On the supply-side, the analytical economic efficiency and technical assessments reveal that Saudi Arabia can supply almost 75% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2040. On the demand-side, the results also reveal that there is a significant achievable potential for saving 26% of peak demand by 2040. Even with the strong potential for demand-side management and renewable energy identified in Saudi Arabia, the development of sustainable energy systems in the country’s utility sector will not occur automatically. For this purpose, several actions are proposed for developing the sustainable energy roadmap, strategies, and policies for Saudi Arabia’s utility sector by addressing three key steps: (1) formulating a longterm goal that incorporates national targets for Saudi Arabia, (2) facilitating the achievement of these goals through the implementation of sound policies and regulations, and (3) creating effective governance structures and administrative processes to ensure that new policies and regulations are enforced and reviewed regularly. The dissertation suggests several important conclusions related to the design of effective intervention policies for a sustainable Saudi utility sector, supporting its position as a new vehicle of growth that facilitates national and socio-economic development and economic diversification plans.Ph.D.University of Delaware, Energy and Environmental Policy Progra