A New Stalemate : The Influence of South Sudan's Independence on The Nile Basin's Water Politics

: This study assesses how South Sudan’s 2011 vote for independence has influenced the Nile Basin’s debate over water rights. Although it initially seemed that South Sudan was aligning itself with the upstream riparian states such as Ethiopia and Uganda, effectively leaving Egypt and Sudan as the only opponents to a Cooperative Framework Agreement and redefining so-called ‘historic water rights’, the escalation of the South Sudanese internal conflict between President Salva Kiir and ex-Vice-President Riek Machar changed this situation entirely. The conflict has reached a new stalemate, with Egypt giving military support to Salva Kiir in his fight against Machar, thus befriending South Sudan and strengthening its position in the Nile Basin, and Ethiopia hesitating to offer support and effectively losing South Sudan as a newly found ally. Currently, a Cooperative Framework Agreement is farther away from being signed than it was before South Sudan’s conflict escalated: South Sudan is no longer in any position to sign or implement agreements and policies regarding water issues, which allowed Egypt to reassert its dominant position in the debate. This study foresees three different possible future scenarios: one of perpetuated violent conflict, one of political conflict and one of increased interstate political cooperation