Analys och kvantifiering av energieffektivisering inom fjärrvärmesektorn

The Swedish Government has set a target to reduce energy consumption through energy efficiency within the construction and real estate sector. The purpose of the study is to examine how energy efficiency within this sector could affect the district heating volume in the future, on basis of Vattenfalls district heating system in Uppsala. An Excel model has been created to study how energy effficiency measures affects district heating demand in buildings by 2045, based on technical and economical conditions. Furthermore, an interview study has been conducted to examine incentives for district heating customers to invest in energy efficiency measures. Result of the Excel model shows that the district heating volume of Vattenfall in 2045 is expected to 931 GWh, which corresponds to a volume decrease of 10,6 %. Based on the study’s theoretical framework only 15 %, 1 024 GWh, of the technical-economical potential is assumed to be implemented. Result of the interview study shows that factors as lack of competence, financial demands and problems linked to incentive structure among district heating customers can counteract a reduction of the district heating volume. Incentives that promotes further energy efficiency are environmental goals and influence from society. Customer comfort is identified as a factor both for and against energy efficiency. In conclusion, an energy efficiency potential between 1,6 and 10,6 % is assumed to be a reasonable estimation. Therefore, the result of the study indicates that the estimated energy efficiency in buildings will not have a major impact on Vattenfall’s future district heating volume