Long term stochastic growth rates of the East Bay common eider population (Southampton Island, Canada).

<p>The stochastic growth rates (<i>log-λ_s</i>) is described as a function of the frequency (number of epidemics per decade) and duration (number of years of epidemics in a row) of avian cholera epidemics. The growth rates were calculated from a stochastic model with two states: no cholera outbreak and cholera outbreak. For the state “cholera outbreak”, we considered different severities (i.e., different level of adult mortality) of epidemics: a low severity as observed in 2005 (<b>A</b>), a moderate severity as observed in 2007 (<b>B</b>) and a high severity as observed in 2006 (<b>C</b>). The black lines denote log-<i>λ_s</i> = 0; colors correspond to different growth rates ranging from blue (positive growth rate, log-<i>λ_s</i>>0) to red (negative growth rate, log-<i>λ_s</i><0). Areas to the right of the black lines indicate combinations of epidemic frequency and duration that are not sustainable for the population (log-<i>λ_s</i><0). The white areas represent impossible combinations of epidemic frequency and duration.