Probability of extinction by simulation scenario.

<p>The cumulative probability of extinction during a 50-yr period (i.e., probability that the population falls below one female) across 24 simulation scenarios depending on whether and how density dependence, immigration, demographic stochasticity, and environmental stochasticity were modeled. Scenarios are as follows: density-dependence - DID (density-independent vital rates) and DD (density-dependent survival); immigration - immigration ignored (No Immigration), and immigration included (Immigration); environmental stochasticity - environmental stochasticity ignored (ES: None), environmental stochasticity modeled with annual estimates of vital rates (ES: Year), and environmental stochasticity modeled with effects of average June–July rainfall on vital rates (ES: Rainfall); and demographic stochasticity - demographic stochasticity ignored (DS: None), and demographic stochasticity considered in all vital rates (DS: All). Cumulative probability of extinction for each scenario based on 10,000 simulations is represented by solid line. Probability of extinction within 50 years and median extinction time for each scenario are presented in large text within each figure panel. All scenarios started with 30 females, distributed to age classes according to stable age distribution for the overall population.