Continuous uncertainty estimation data grouped across subjects.

<p>This figure illustrates the quantitative match between the model and the data. (<b>A</b>) <b>Average Trajectories.</b> In this figure we show the average empirical trajectories across subjects compared to model predictions. Trajectories are computed for each subject by averaging over the trials for each condition. From top-to-bottom we plot the early, middle and late-onset perturbation conditions (indicated by shaded region), and from left-to-right we plot negative (blue), zero (purple) and positive (red) perturbation directions. The resultant trajectory for each (labelled) shows the mean across subjects SEM. The model fit to the data is shown using a dashed line. Note that the model does not explain the initial part of the trajectory (arrow <i>a</i>), but does reasonably well at explaining the timing of deviations in uncertainty perception that arise as a consequence of perturbations (arrows <i>b</i>, <i>c</i> and <i>d</i>) (<b>B and C</b>) <b>Confidence Reported.</b> For each of the experiment conditions we show how the endpoint subjective uncertainty is a predictable function of variance , perturbation magnitude and block . We plot the same results grouped in different ways for comparison. The model makes a good quantitative fit for all conditions, but note that the model contains a systematic <i>safety margin</i> parameter which may explain some aspects of the data fit (see text).