Analysis of secular trends over the whole study period using retrospective gridsearch.

<p>The best model for quarterly mortality, neutrophil counts, and urea over the whole study period (solid line) was chosen on the basis of BIC, see <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001279#s2" target="_blank">Methods</a>. Models with BIC within 3.84 of the best fit were considered statistically equivalent, and variation in the estimated joinpoints across these models are indicated by the horizontal intervals around the joinpoint from the best model (indicating a change from an upward to downward trend by ▴, and from a downward to an upward trend by ▾). Any equivalent models with fewer or greater joinpoints than the best model are shown with dashed grey lines.