Comparison of model simulations with malaria data and regression estimates.

<p>The data and the regression estimates for relapse latency and frequency from <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979#pntd-0001979-g002" target="_blank">figure 2</a> are plotted in red, the median of 1000 model simulations is plotted in blue, and the 10–90 percentile range shaded in light blue (all simulations use the maximum-likelihood-estimates of the parameters, see suppl <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979#pntd.0001979.s007" target="_blank">Table S1</a>). A. The peaks and troughs of the monthly simulated cases track the data well, except for the underestimation and overestimation of large outbreaks before and after 2007 respectively (see text). B. The power spectrum of the median cases from the simulated time series reproduces the yearly and the two longer interannual cycles observed in the data (and also present in the rainfall covariate, see <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979#pntd-0001979-g002" target="_blank">Fig. 2B</a>). C. The seasonal patterns in the data and simulations show good agreement. D. A linear regression of aggregated transmission and relapse cases in each of the 1000 simulation time series gives the same 31% relapse rate as in the data. E. The average autocorrelation curve of the simulated cases reproduces the observed 7-month mean latency period. F. The gamma-shaped latency distribution is plotted using the shape parameter values taken from supplement <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979#pntd.0001979.s007" target="_blank">Table S1</a>, which predicts median and mean latency periods of 6.4 and 7.1 months respectively.