Embedding scenario analysis and application in delta planning processes in Bangladesh

The objective of this research was to explore how scenario analysis and application in delta planning could be embedded in institutions in Bangladesh, on a continuous and enduring basis. By reviewing the National Water Management Plan, the 5 Year Plan and the Bangladesh Delta Plan it can be concluded that different institutions have different notions of scenarios. To clarify the various types of scenarios, we introduce a classification of three types of scenarios: predictive scenarios aim to make an attempt to predict what is going to happen in the future (e.g. 5 Year Plan), explorative scenarios explore situations or developments that are regarded as possible to happen (e.g. BDP), and normative scenarios aim to specify how a specific target can be reached (e.g. Bangladesh reaching status of middle-income country through a series of 5 Year Plan’s). The classification and examples of scenario use in Bangladesh make clear that scenario delta planning using external scenarios is for the moment in an initial stage. One in which different institutions have different notions of scenarios, and the explorative scenario thinking of the BDP is not broadly embraced yet. Due to the top-down planning system of Bangladesh, high level decisions and commitment are essential for institutional embedding of scenario delta planning. To specify what should be embedded in institutions in Bangladesh, 15 tasks of scenario delta planning are discussed in this report. The tasks are related to uptake in the planning system, development and revision of scenarios, connection between scenarios and strategies/measures in planning, research and capacity building. Finally, recommendations are provided as to how scenario analysis and application can be made enduring. Scenario planning should be linked to the planning cycle of the 5 Year Plans. In addition, mandates and responsibilities regarding scenario development, use and update should be made clear. And the capacities of students and professionals should be developed as Bangladesh is shifting from the use of predictive scenarios (blue-print planning) to explorative scenarios. Embedding scenario analysis and application in delta planning processes in Bangladesh (PDF Download Available)