Model comparison.

<p>Seven models (sorted into the “high complexity” model M7 with 3 variables, three “medium complexity” models (M4–M6) with 2 variables each, and 3 “low complexity” models (M1–M3) with one variable each) are compared in terms of their log-likelihood on training (blue) and testing (red) data. The data used in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0193049#pone.0193049.g008" target="_blank">Fig 8</a> was split into segments of 10 s, containing on average 35 state transitions, for a total of 180 segments. These segments were then randomly assigned to a training and testing set, with probabilities 0.75 (training set) and 0.25 (testing set). The transition rates were inferred from the training set and tested on the testing set. We generated in total 200 random assignments. Bars are averages over sample sets ± standard error.