A Scenario-Based Firm Performance Analysis

??? ????????? ?????? ??? ???????????? 44????????? ?????????????????? 562????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ??????????????? ???????????? ????????? ??????????????? ????????????(quality capability)??? ???????????? ????????? ????????????(market impact)??? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ??? ???????????? ???????????????. ?????? ??????????????? ????????? ???????????? ??? ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ?????????????????? ????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ????????? ??????(innovation)??? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????, ????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ??? ?????? ??????. ?????? ????????????????????? ??????????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ????????? ??????????????? ??????. ?????? ????????? ?????????????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ?????? ???????????????????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ??????????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ????????????, ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????(market boom)??? ??????????????? ?????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????????. ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ??? ????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ????????? ????????????????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ??????????????? ????????????????????? ??????????????? ??? ?????????. ???, ??????????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ??? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ?????? ??????????????? ?????????.This paper adopts a scenario-based simulation approach in order to examine which one between quality capability and market impact contributes more to the performance of rapidly growing but recently established U.S. startups. To collect such startups, 1993 and 2003 Fortune 500 Indexes are compared, and 358 firms are found to have newly entered the index in 2003. Among them, 44 startups founded ex post 1975 are defined as 'rapid-growth' startups and their early competitors that are collected through Lexis-Nexis. I consider four business scenarios based on the combinations of the quality capability and market impact. They represent four possible business environments that can occur to newly founded startups. As an analytical tool, a discrete-choice single prize innovation race model is constructed. The model is able to determine the order of investments among race participants. For this experiment, three players are considered: a rapid-growth startup and two large incumbents, say early competitors. According to the simulation results, the rapid-growth startup is more likely to obtain innovations as the scale of the two factors becomes larger. Furthermore, between quality capability and market impact, the former has a larger impact on the equilibrium investment of the rapid-growth startup, which suggests that quality shock plays a more important role in enhancing the performance of rapid-growth startups