The Effects of Accrual Quality and Accrual Component of Earnings Volatility on Management Earnings Forecasts

??? ????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????????????????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ????????????????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ???????????????. ??????????????? ?????? ???????????? ????????????????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????. ????????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ??? ???????????? ???(AQ)??? ????????? ??????(ACEV)??? ???????????????. ???????????? ?????? Dechow and Dichev(2002)??? ????????? ?????? ???????????????, ????????? ????????? Jayaraman(2008)??? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????????. ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????????. ????????? ?????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????. ????????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????? ?????? ?????????. ??? ????????? ??????????????? ????????? ??????. ??????, ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????? ????????? ?????????. ??????, ????????? ??????(ACEV)??? ???????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????? ????????? ?????????. ??? ???????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ????????? ?????? ???????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ????????????. ??????, ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ???(+)??? ????????? ????????????. ???????????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ????????????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????????. ??????, ????????? ??????(ACEV)??? ???????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ???(+)??? ????????? ????????????. ????????? ???????????? ????????????????????? ????????? ????????? ???????????????????????? ????????? ???????????? ???????????? ???????????? ??????. ??? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????? ????????????????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ????????? ????????????????????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????? ?????? ??? ??????.We investigate the effects of accrual quality and accrual component of earnings volatility on management earnings forecasts. By this study, we examine factors of management earnings forecasts. Management earnings forecasts accuracy can be affected by earnings quality. We employ accrual quality(AQ) and accrual component of earnings volatility(ACEV) as a proxy of earnings quality. Accrual quality is estimated by Dechow and Dichev(2002)'s method, and accrual component of earnings volatility is estimated by Jayaraman(2008)'s method. ACEV is the difference of earnings volatility and accrual volatility. We hypothesize that they should be positive association between AQ(ACEV) and management earnings forecast errors and they should be positive association between AQ(ACEV) and management earnings forecast accuracy. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find significant positive associations between AQ(ACEV) and management earnings forecast errors and management earnings forecast accuracy. The bigger AQ(ACEV), the bigger the difference of management earnings forecasts and reported earnings. These results are the same in operating income and net income level. This study provides the||||evidence that earnings quality has significant effects on management earnings forecasts