Prediction of System Functional Reliability based on Probit model

?????? ????????????(One-shot device)??? ??????, ?????????, ??????????????? ?????? ?????? 1??? ?????? ??? ????????? ???????????? ?????????, ???????????? ??? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ?????? ???????????? ??? ????????????. ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?????? 1986??? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ????????? ??? ??????. ?????? ???????????? ????????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?????????, ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????????(functional reliability)??? ????????? ?????? ????????????. ??? ??????????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ??????(probit model)??? ???????????????. ?????? ??????????????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ???????????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??? ????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????????. ??????????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????????????????, ???????????? ?????? ?????? ??????????????? ????????? ?????? ??? ??? ????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????????. ????????? ????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ??????????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ???????????????. ?????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ????????????(lower confidence limit) ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ??????????????????, ????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ??? ????????? ?????????????????????. ?????? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ?????????(performance modeling) ?????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ??????. ???????????? ????????? 6?????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????????????????, ??????-?????? ?????? ??????(stress-strength models)??? ???????????? ??????????????? ???????????????(Monte-Carlo simulation)??? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? 100% ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ????????? ??? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ????????????.One shot device is device which used for one time successful mission in ammunition, missiles and space aircraft. It has much potential for further research and invested heavily by defense adminstration and space administration. Projectile industry can turn into horrific accident such as Challenger in 1986 if there exist defect or failure of delicate and complicated device. Due to its characteristics as use for one time mission, prediction of its functional reliability is highly important for mission success. This thesis propose probit model based on the important features related with failure of device to predict functional reliability. The probit model which selected failure factor of system as a important feature estimate operational reliability and guarantee the target reliability by estimating lower confidence interval and adequate feature estimation. For the Pin puller, selected amount of propellant which influence failure mechanism. In order to obtain the failure data, decrease the propellant amount and use the probit model to predict functional reliability of pin puller. To confirm the goal reliability, predict rightful amount of propellant based on the lower confidence limit and sample size, and compare and analyze its result by application of proposed probit model into real time test and simulation test data. Previous research used 6 ordinary differential equations for performance modeling and Monte-Carlo simulation based on the stress-strength model to predict Pin-puller???s functional reliability. These method have pros which does not require sample, but it have cons such as no-guarantee of accuracy of performance modeling in reality. For these reason, it require reliability prediction method based on test.Maste