Identifying the Future Directions of Australian Excess Stock Returns and Their Determinants Using Binary Models

The predictability of excess stock returns has been debated by researchers over time, with many studies proving that stock returns can be predicted to some extent. To enable an effective investment strategy, it is vital for investors to identify the future directions of stock returns and the factors causing directional changes. This study sought to determine whether Australian monthly excess stock return signs are predictable, and identify the key determinants of Australian monthly excess stock return directions. Three different binary models were considered to predict stock directions: discriminant, logistic and probit models. The predictive powers of benchmark static logistic and probit models were also compared with dynamic, autoregressive and dynamic autoregressive models. In order to identify the key determinants, this study considered various economic, international and financial factors, as well as past volatility measures of explanatory variables. It also tested a United States (US) binary recession indicator and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) composite leading indicator as explanatory variables in the predictive models