Relationship between ESI tendency and Indian monsoon rainfall: A possible mechanism

In this article, we have studied spatial and temporal variabilities of temperature and zonal wind field over 90°-0°N, 90°W-90°E during contrasting phases of Effective Strength Index (ESI) tendency and its relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). During positive (negative) ESI tendency, there is winter-time anomalous cooling (warming) over western Eurasia surrounding Moscow but magnitude of warming is stronger than cooling. The correlation analysis also suggests that negative ESI tendency is significantly associated with warming over western Eurasia during winter and spring seasons. The study further reveals that positive (negative) ESI tendency is indicating winter-time anomalous trough (ridge) over the Russian region surrounding Moscow