Monsoon variability: Links to major oscillations over the equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans

In this article, we first discuss our perception of the factors which are critical for inter-annual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the major milestones leading to this understanding. The nature of the two critical modes for monsoon variability, viz. El Nino Southern Oscillation and equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation is considered and their links to the monsoon elucidated. We suggest possible reasons for the rather poor skill of simulation of the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by atmospheric general circulation models, run with the observed sea surface temperature as boundary condition. We discuss implications of what we have learned for the monsoon of 2006, and possible use of information on the two important modes for prediction of the rainfall in all or part of the summer monsoon season. We conclude with our view of what the focus of research and development should be for achieving a substantial improvement in the skill of simulation and prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the near future