Forecasting international regional tourist arrivals to China

This study develops models to forecast international arrivals to regional China, using time series as well as causal explanatory methods. The nine quantitative forecast methods applied in this study are Holt, Exponential\ud Smoothing, Naïve, ARMA, Neural, and Basic Structural Model (BSM) with and without intervention, and the causal explanatory forecast models are the Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) with and without dummy variables. This research has demonstrated a pressing need for advancing and expanding, international tourism forecasting from the current national based approach, to include regional forecasting